Soccer Sagacity

After the conclusion of four thrilling Euro 2012 groups – all filled with their own drama and subplots – the quarter final draw is now complete and we can look forward to the latter stages of the competition.

Thanks to the failure of Russia and Poland, we must tolerate the presence of the Czech Republic and Greece in the quarter finals (*German fans laughing hysterically*). The Dutch shambles allowed Portugal to escape the Group of Death, whilst Croatia weren’t quite able to leapfrog Italy to get out of Group C. Group D was probably the most predicable group, despite France’s loss to Sweden. With most of the favourites through to the next round, plus a couple of underdog stories in the making, all signs point to Euro 2012 continuing to deliver.

Here’s a look at how the quarter finals line up.

Quarter Final 1

Czech Republic v Portugal

Thursday 21^st June, Warsaw

Ronaldo celebrates scoring against the Netherlands

Somehow, the Czechs managed to recover from a dismal opening performance against the Russians to qualify as group winners. Inspired by the World’s most lethargic footballer, Andrey Arshavin (he just pipped Dimitar Berbatov in a closely-fought but energy-devoid battle), the Russians managed to throw away their nailed-on ‘Group A Winners’ status. Despite the erratic form of Petr Cech and Milan Baros they have limped through to the quarter finals. Diminutive winger Václav Pilař and midfield Big Issue salesman Petr Jiráček have been the standout performers for the Czechs thus far and will be looking to build on their impressive showings in the quarter final.

Portugal, meanwhile, took advantage of the utterly abysmal Dutch performances in Group B to sneak into the quarters behind the irrepressible Germans. Cristiano Ronaldo finally found form with an epic display against the Dutch in which he could have scored 4 or 5 times, and they should have plenty in their locker to see off the Czechs. If not, it will be a tragedy for football. We all want to see Ronaldo reproduce his club form on the international stage and this could yet be his tournament. If he were to guide his national team to the title it would surely make him the favourite for the Ballon D’Or ahead of Barcelona’s superhuman Ratboy.

Odds of progressing: Portugal 4/11 – Czech Republic 2/1

Quarter Final 2

Germany v Greece

Friday 22^nd June, Gdansk

Gomez will be hoping for a few goals against the Greeks

Hotly tipped pre-tournament as favourites to challenge Spain for the title, the Germans couldn’t have wished for a better draw in the quarter finals. Greece can perform defensively but offer very little going forward, no matter how good Jesus, sorry, Georgios Samaras thinks he is. They did well to recover after unfairly going a man down in their opener against Poland, and battled well against the lacklustre Russians to earn their escape from Group A, just don’t expect a repeat of 2004.

Germany, in contrast, have the only 100% record in the competition despite not yet reaching their maximum. Mario Gomez is in ominous form, scoring two fantastic goals against Holland whilst amazingly only being in possession of the ball for around 20 seconds. With one of the World’s best attacking midfielders in Mesut Özil flanked by Thomas Müller and Lukas Podolski, Germany should cruise through this game. Many punters will be hoping Gomez bags a few more goals to pull ahead in the race for the golden boot.

Odds of progressing: Germany 1/8 – Greece 9/2

Quarter Final 3

Spain v France

Saturday 23^rd June, Donetsk

Benzema and Ribery are integral to France’s chances

Anyone who has watched Spain this tournament will have seen that they are struggling without attacking spearhead David Villa, although they still qualified from Group C relatively comfortably in the end. It is clear that Del Bosque’s favoured 4-6-0 formation allows fluidity and dominance of possession, but they are missing the killer instinct of “Bee-ya” who was always a shoo-in for ‘First Goalscorer’ betting. After an uneasy performance against Croatia, they may revert to using Fernando Torres, who claimed a couple of tidy goals against the hopeless Irish last week.

France capitulated against Sweden in their final group game and it proved costly as they finished second in the group to set up a difficult tie against the Spanish. Both sides like to play methodical possession football so it should be a good – if somewhat slow – match, although it may be devoid of chances as the technical players play keep-ball in and around the midfield area. However, France have the benefit of Karim Benzema, a club team mate of many of the Spanish side and a man highly capable of fulfilling the ‘false nine’ position that Spain so crave. I envisage a score draw similar to the Spain-Italy game, leading to a tense period of extra time.

Odds of progressing: Spain 2/5 – France 15/8

Quarter Final 4

England v Italy

Sunday 24^th June, Kyiv

Roy Hodgson has done exactly what we expected of him; he has steadied the ship that Capello and his predecessors seemed intent on sinking. Rigid organisation and counter-attacking football may not lead to the most aesthetically-pleasing games in the tournament, but England have gone back to their roots and it has delivered results, so far. Qualification from the group was to be expected, but topping the group and avoiding Spain may have surprised some. Inevitably, England’s early solidarity combined with Spain’s failure to find top gear has lead to the early bubblings of hysterical statements such as “we shouldn’t fear the Spanish”. Yes, we should. We conceded substantial amounts of possession in all of our group games and were only able to survive these games because of the opponents lack of invention in the final third. England will need to improve to beat Italy.

The Italians performed well against Spain and earned a respectable draw. The ever-mental but eternally entertaining Mario Balotelli will be eager to square up to club mates Joe Hart and Joleon Lescott. Only those within Man City know whether Balotelli and Lescott’s familiarity with each other’s strengths and weaknesses will play into the hands of the Italian headline-machine or the English Klingon. Elsewhere, expect Italy to dominate the ball with Pirlo and Marchisio providing a technically superior midfield pairing to Parker and Gerrard, although Rooney and co will be hopeful of exploiting an Italian backline which is less resilient than teams of yesteryear.

A potential semi final against tournament front-runners Germany is a tantalising prospect, especially for the English who will be looking for revenge for the semi final defeat in Euro ’96…and countless other beatings at the hands of our oldest enemy.

Odds of progressing: England 10/11 – Italy 10/11

Wayne Rooney heads the winner against Ukraine

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Group C could well have been termed the Group of Death were it not for the arrangement of Group B. But with reigning World and European Champions Spain paired with former World Champions Italy, talented Croatia and gutsy Republic of Ireland, groups don’t come much tougher. Spain and Italy played out a 1-1 draw whilst Croatia comprehensively beat Ireland 3-1.

Here are 5 things we learned today.

Fabregas celebrates his goal against Italy

1.       Spain are not an unstoppable force

Favourites Spain were fairly lacklustre against Italy. Sure, they played nice tiki-taka football at times and are by far the most talented squad on paper, but they suffered Barcelona syndrome of overplaying the ball around in midfield with a lack of real penetration. People compared Spain to Barcelona without Messi, and the lack of a focal point in attack showed. The interchangeable 4-6-0 formation works with Messi as the false nine, but Fabregas isn’t quite the same player and this often left Spain with no one to get on the end of an Andres Iniesta or Xavi Hernandez pass. Torres’ late cameo appearance echoed his fortunes in a Chelsea shirt this season, meaning Del Bosque will surely start Fernando Llorente in their 2^nd game against the Irish.

2.       Ireland are all-but out of the tournament already

Any team relying on John O’Shea and Keith Andrews is going to struggle at this level, and that certainly was the case for the Irish tonight. They were outclassed by the technically-gifted Croats and things don’t get any easier with games against Spain and Italy to come. The Irish fans should just enjoy the tournament and hope for the best – not getting pummelled in both their remaining games.

Ireland were well-beaten by Croatia

3.       Croatia could spring a few surprises

I tipped Russia and Croatia to be the dark horses of the tournament, and they have arguably put in the most accomplished attacking displays so far (granted, they have had relatively comfortable games). Like the Russians, Croatia have a wealth of attacking talent and a settled team with both young and experienced players balanced throughout. If they can get a result in either of their remaining games they will likely be heading to the Quarter Finals to face either France or England.

4.       Organised Italy are a different team to 2 years ago

Playing an unusual 5-3-2 formation with midfield bulldog Danielle De Rossi in a sweeper role, the Italians were compact and organised on the break and utilised long diagonal balls to Cassano, Balotelli and – in the latter stages – Di Natale in a counter-attacking strategy. If it were not for a bit of Balotelli’s madness, Italy could have won the game today. With central midfield dictated by expert passers Marchisio and Pirlo, the Italians look like a team with a genuine chance of doing well in the tournament. The next game against the Croatians could decide who progresses to the Quarter Finals.

5.       Balotelli is still mental

Balotelli: you wouldn’t mess with him, would you?

Super Mario displayed his usual mix of brilliance and madness against the Spaniards. Unfortunately, the genius shown by his no-look backheel control to keep the ball in play was overshadowed by his lack of temperament. After earlier repeatedly punching the turf in frustration at a refereeing decision, he later brilliantly beat Ramos to a long ball and closed in on goal. Instead of hammering the ball past Casillas or squaring to Cassano, he seemed intent on eye-balling the Spanish goalkeeper into submission. Ramos’ recovery challenge caught Mario completely by surprise and led to his immediate substitution. Utterly bonkers.

Other brief grievances:

-          The British media seem utterly incapable of focusing on a game involving two non-British teams. Instead, we are subjected to continuous England-centric rumour and speculation rather than discussing the tactics or selections of the upcoming fixture. The broadcasters continue to shoehorn England interviews and footage into halftime and post-match analysis instead of daring to dissect the on-pitch action. Even the post-match montage after today’s fixtures was England-France themed. Utterly infuriating.

-          Sergio Ramos cut his hair and it looks silly.

-          Someone in the crowd of the Croatia-Ireland game managed to buy a referees whistle off eBay and decided to use it randomly throughout the game, often leading me to think that play had stopped. This was immensely annoying.

-          ITV’s coverage features the most bizarre choice of background music which sounds – as pointed out by my observant friend Nick – like an extract from Russian children’s composition Peter and the Wolf.

Here’s Group C after the opening round of fixtures.

Euro 2012 Group C

To the delight of the BBC and ITV, England play France tomorrow and they can finally roll out all that fascinating footage of Gerrard discussing how they’ll “give it everything” and “that they don’t fear anybody”. There’s a relief.

Come on England etc.

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The Group of Death kicked off today and instantly threw up a shock. A wasteful and lethargic Dutch side lost 1-0 to Denmark who effectively had one chance, and took it. The Netherlands had 28 attempts on goal but crucially made none count. In the later kick off, Germany overcame Portugal in a tepid affair.

 Here are 5 things we learned today.

1.       Expect the unexpected

To compare the Netherlands-Denmark game to Chelsea-Barcelona is inaccurate, the Dutch were indeed superior but the defeat was due to wasteful finishing and a lack of energy in the latter stages of the game. Denmark’s victory was more due to luck than grit and heroic defending, but the result is all that counts. If they can hold out against Portugal they have a real chance of qualifying second in the group, but I still expect them to be beaten in both their remaining games.

Krohn-Dehli celebrates his winner against the Netherlands

2.       Opening games are important, but not definitive

OK, the Netherlands lost their opening game. As Jonathan Pearce pointed out, they did so in ’88 on the way to winning the trophy. Spain also lost their opening game in South Africa two years ago, and we all know how that ended. Whilst defeat to the weakest team in the group is a nightmare start, all is not lost for the Netherlands. However, they’ll need to take risks against the Germans and Portuguese and most likely start with a 4-4-2 with van Persie and Huntelaar upfront, meaning their vulnerable defence could be more exposed.

3.       Marauding centre backs can unlock stubborn defences

With many teams set up to avoid conceding rather than trying to outscore opponents (Portugal, Denmark, Greece), space is hard to come by for attacking players. In situations like this, it can be a real advantage to have a central defender (or alternatively a deep-lying defensive midfielder) who is comfortable carrying the ball. Short bursts from centre back can expose the opponents midfield and allow attacking players to find space as their marker dispatches to close down the ball-carrying defender. Mats Hummels and Sami Khedira did this to good effect at times against Portugal, and England could benefit from the same if Scott Parker is prepared to venture forward.

Mats Hummels put in a commanding shift at the heart of Germany’s defence

4.       European refs need to learn to let the game flow

There were several occasions during the Germany v Portugal match where rudimentary shoulder charges were called as fouls by the officials. Howard Webb showed yesterday how to referee a game; respect the players, allow physicality within the rules and keep the ball in play wherever possible. The French referee in charge of the 2^nd of tonight’s games seemed hell-bent on preventing any physical content whatsoever, to the detriment of the game.

5.       BBC coverage is far superior to ITV

This is something we all knew already, but worth pointing out anyway. Opinionated pundits, good analysis and insight from Alan Hansen, Linekar directs the conversation well and asks the right questions. Seedorf is interesting and offers a non-British perspective. Redknapp answers questions honestly and calls it as he sees it.

ITV, instead, offer dull-as-ditchwater Gareth Southgate, Roy “I hate everything and everyone” Keane and Adrian “fancies himself as Peter Kay” Chiles. No insight, no analysis, terrible puns and just a collection of generally awful humans. If I was rich, I would buy out ITV and shut it down.

So another day of entertaining football and talking points. Here’s Group B after the opening round of fixtures.

Euro 2012 Group B

Tomorrow sees reigning champions Spain take on Italy in Gdansk, followed by the Republic of Ireland and Croatia in Poznan. I expect Croatia to surprise a few people and qualify from Group C, so am looking forward to another great day in the Euro’s.

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